This week the PGA Tour heads to mainland US for the first time at The American Express. This tournament still feels like a ramp-up event for the majority of the field, and we as golf fans and fantasy players alike still need some time to get into the groove of things again.
We have one of the better fields we have seen at this tournament in recent memory, with top players like Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas teeing it up, with a great supporting cast of top 50 players.
Recap of Last Week
The Sony Open delivered a fantastic finish, with longshot Grayson Murray prevailing in a 3-man playoff over seasoned veterans Keegan Bradley and Ben An. The course played tougher than usual with high winds for some of the first two days, but the weekend saw plenty of low scores like we expected.
Murray has a very troubling past; most well-known for his despicable Twitter behavior and grotesque on-course antics. Nevertheless, he has spoken about his sobriety and he has shown a great turnaround in his career in the last 8 months. Congratulations, Grayson.
What to Know About The American Express
This tournament will break me. As fantasy players we do not enjoy tournaments like this – a “f***ing putting-fest” – Jon Rahm. They are as difficult to predict as any we will see all season.
Not to mention the Pro-Am aspect results in us having to deal with a 3 course rotation, with no ShotLink on the Nicklaus Course and La Quinta CC. The better players will play the Stadium Course both Saturday and Sunday to fit into the more lucrative TV windows.
I am not going to dive too deep into statistics for my American Express picks. The three courses prevent us from being able to distinguish anything too specific from previous years in order to make a good stat-correlation for our picks.
Know this – the player who wins will be someone who hits fairways, makes birdies on every par 5 they play, and probably has good desert course history.
Note: 14/15 of the previous winners have played in at least one of the two Hawaii events.
Players With Good Course History
Unlike last week, we don’t need to rely fully on course history to give us our champion, however we know that players who like to pin seek and can go very low on any given day have played well here.
Sungjae Im fits this perfectly. Coming off a record setting birdie performance at Kapalua and never having finished worse than 18th in 5 starts means he will be a lot on a lot of people’s shortlists this season.
Adam Hadwin has a handful of top finishes at the American Express, and has the 4th best average scoring round on the Stadium Course. Not to mention he has played well at the Shriner’s Open in Vegas (desert golf).
Both Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler boast top 5 scoring averages here, and wouldn’t surprise anyone to see them lift the trophy.
Tom Kim, Taylor Montgomery, Chris Kirk, and JT Poston all finished in the top 10 last year. They have the ball-striking to do it, and if they dont lose putting, expect them to be up there again. All are valid picks if you are playing on-and-done or DFS.
Players Who Stick Out to Me
- Tony Finau did not play well at the Sentry, but has a very solid history here including a top 4 finish in 2021. He is top 5 in scoring average here, and we all know he can make birdies with the best of them. Big Tone is on my radar, for sure.
- Adam Hadwin was mentioned above for his good course history and ability to go low. He lost in a playoff here before, and consistently puts up a ton of birdies per round. I really like Adam, which is a surefire sign he will MC and make me pull my hair out for doing so.
- Nick Taylor – He played well at the Sony but was let down on the weekend by a wonky putter, which is usually his strong suit. This course isn’t overly long, which means he has a shot, and he loves some Cali golf (win at Pebble). He also almost won Waste Management last season, which shows an affinity for the desert.
- Scottie Scheffler – I know I am not going out on a limb here but Scottie is perfect for this course. If it hits -30 he will have some trouble keeping up with the putter, but he likes the greens better than most, and with generous par 5’s and pro-am set ups, he will be hitting everything to 3 feet. Never makes a bogey.
Players I am Fading this Week
- Wyndham Clark – I fear the Ryder Cup was the end of Wyndham. He lost his driving accuracy, and is back to being the player he was before the US Open. Take your LIV money and ride into the sunset, kid.
- JT Poston is going to be a DFS and fantasy darling this week. A strong play here last year coupled with a Sunday 61 and good form is perfect for predictors. At 28-1 he is higher on the board than Day and Finau. Laughable.
- Min Woo Lee – I am very high on Him Woo, believe me. But he hasn’t played since Australia (where he won and finished third in two starts). Despite some Pete Dye success, I don’t think he can keep up with the scores we expect to see.
My The American Express One-and-Done Pick
I am struggling to find the touch this year. This leaderboard will be riddled with the very top, and a few longshots will make names for themselves, like Davis Thompson last year. There’s not much money at stake, so using one of the world’s best seems futile.
I think I am going to take a shot at someone who has won before, will not be too popular, has good desert history, and can beat the best when he’s on. Not to mention, he’s won here before. Si Woo shaking that ass, shaking that ass, shaking that ass. Si Woo Kim 45-1.
Last Week: Eric Cole 13th – $153,135
YTD Winnings: $683,135